FOMC, Jobs Data, Ukraine Will Keep Gold Market On Edge By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News Friday, April 25, 2014 2:14 PM (Kitco News) - Next week is chock-full of possible market-moving events for the gold market, with a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and April nonfarm payrolls data set for release; additionally, any change in the standoff between Russia and Ukraine has the ability to move markets. Gold traders will have to be nimble next week as these headline-making events could cause volatile market action. June gold futures rose Friday, settling at $1,300.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.53% on the week. May silver fell Friday, settling at $19.691 an ounce, up 0.49% on the week. In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 19 responded this week. Twelve see prices up, while four see prices down and three see prices sideways or unchanged. Gold prices popped higher Thursday, reversing the downtrend seen earlier in the week, as traders became nervous over perceived escalation in the Ukraine-Russian situation. President Barack Obama and European leaders are set to meet and Obama is expected to try to convince EU leaders to put sanctions on Russia for its saber-rattling toward Ukraine. Any increase in tensions between the two nations could cause investors to sour on risky assets like equities, such as what was seen in Thursday’s trade, and that may be supportive to gold. Standard & Poor’s lowered its credit rating on Russia to BBB-, near junk status, and the Russian stock index fell about 5% this week over the continued geopolitical tensions, said BNP Paribas. Because of the uncertainty over the Ukraine situation, several gold-market watchers said they are leaning toward higher prices for next week. “Fundamentally, the situation in Ukraine could ratchet up (and that would support gold). You’re seeing it in other markets, too. Look at the grains. You’re not seeing it in energy, though, because crude oil is lower. But I wouldn’t sell crude oil here,” said Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group. Nedoss said gold’s technical charts also look positive going into next week, especially since gold closed the week higher. “This was a big week. We tried and failed three times to hold under the 100-day moving average,” Nedoss said. If gold can build on weekly gains and close above $1,320, “that would be very friendly to gold,” he said. Related Stories: Analysts: Approaching Indian Festival May Help Put Floor Under Gold Market Platinum Prices Vulnerable To Further Losses FOMC Meeting, Jobs Data On Tap Geopolitical news is not the only factor gold traders need to consider next week, as there is plenty of economic data to affect trade. The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and economists said they expect the Fed to announce another $10 billion-a-month cut in its quantitative easing program, and on Friday the Labor Department is scheduled to release its April nonfarm payrolls data. The early read for the jobs report is that the data should show a rise in hiring. “We project a 250,000 rise in April payrolls, stronger than in March, as initial and continuing claims have fallen significantly in April and weather is normalizing. We look for the firm pace of job growth to lead the unemployment rate to fall to 6.6% from 6.7% in March,” said analysts at Barclays. Alex Manzara, vice president, RJ O’Brien & Associates, said the Fed will have a very good idea about Friday's data going into their conference. “The premise that slow activity was due in part to adverse weather conditions as mentioned in last statement appears to have been supported by improved data. So, it should mean that tapering continues right on schedule with concurrent repetition that it ‘likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends,’” Manzara said. Gold-market traders are also going to keep their eye on physical demand. Next week is the Indian festival Akshaya Tritiya on May 2, which could result in a slight pickup in gold demand there, but with the heavy tariffs placed on gold, there are questions on much buying will actually occur. Shanghai Gold Exchange prices finally rose to a very modest premium of about $1 an ounce this week after trading at a discount to London values. Gold lease rates have also been in a slight backwardation, meaning nearby demand is higher than that for deferred dates, which means there is some appetite in the physical realm. However, bullion dealers aren’t impressed. “I’m really disappointed in gold’s performance because the demand is very lackluster. People don’t want to pay the premia. It’s sluggish. Those who need to buy come in but they’re (not bidding up),” said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at trading house MKS (Switzerland) SA.

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News Friday, April 25, 2014 2:14 PM
FOMC, Jobs Data, Ukraine Will Keep Gold Market On Edge
(Kitco News) - Next week is chock-full of possible market-moving events for the gold market, with a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and April nonfarm payrolls data set for release; additionally, any change in the standoff between Russia and Ukraine has the ability to move markets.
Gold traders will have to be nimble next week as these headline-making events could cause volatile market action.
June gold futures rose Friday, settling at $1,300.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.53% on the week. May silver fell Friday, settling at $19.691 an ounce, up 0.49% on the week. 
In the Kitco News
Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 19 responded this week. Twelve see prices up, while four see prices down and three see prices sideways or unchanged.
Gold prices popped higher Thursday, reversing the downtrend seen earlier in the week, as traders became nervous over perceived escalation in the Ukraine-Russian situation. President Barack Obama and European leaders are set to meet and Obama is expected to try to convince EU leaders to put sanctions on Russia for its saber-rattling toward Ukraine.
Any increase in tensions between the two nations could cause investors to sour on risky assets like equities, such as what was seen in Thursday’s trade, and that may be supportive to gold. Standard & Poor’s lowered its credit rating on Russia to BBB-, near junk status, and the Russian stock index fell about 5% this week over the continued geopolitical tensions, said BNP Paribas.
Because of the uncertainty over the Ukraine situation, several gold-market watchers said they are leaning toward higher prices for next week.
“Fundamentally, the situation in Ukraine could ratchet up (and that would support gold). You’re seeing it in other markets, too. Look at the grains. You’re not seeing it in energy, though, because crude oil is lower. But I wouldn’t sell crude oil here,” said Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group.
Nedoss said gold’s technical charts also look positive going into next week, especially since gold closed the week higher.
“This was a big week. We tried and failed three times to hold under the 100-day moving average,” Nedoss said.
If gold can build on weekly gains and close above $1,320, “that would be very friendly to gold,” he said.

FOMC Meeting, Jobs Data On Tap
Geopolitical news is not the only factor gold traders need to consider next week, as there is plenty of economic data to affect trade.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and economists said they expect the Fed to announce another $10 billion-a-month cut in its quantitative easing program, and on Friday the Labor Department is scheduled to release its April nonfarm payrolls data.
The early read for the jobs report is that the data should show a rise in hiring. “We project a 250,000 rise in April payrolls, stronger than in March, as initial and continuing claims have fallen significantly in April and weather is normalizing. We look for the firm pace of job growth to lead the unemployment rate to fall to 6.6% from 6.7% in March,” said analysts at Barclays.
Alex Manzara, vice president, RJ O’Brien & Associates, said the Fed will have a very good idea about Friday's data going into their conference.
“The premise that slow activity was due in part to adverse weather conditions as mentioned in last statement appears to have been supported by improved data.  So, it should mean that tapering continues right on schedule with concurrent repetition that it ‘likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends,’” Manzara said.
 Gold-market traders are also going to keep their eye on physical demand. Next week is the Indian festival Akshaya Tritiya on May 2, which could result in a slight pickup in gold demand there, but with the heavy tariffs placed on gold, there are questions on much buying will actually occur.
Shanghai Gold Exchange prices finally rose to a very modest premium of about $1 an ounce this week after trading at a discount to London values. Gold lease rates have also been in a slight backwardation, meaning nearby demand is higher than that for deferred dates, which means there is some appetite in the physical realm. However, bullion dealers aren’t impressed.
“I’m really disappointed in gold’s performance because the demand is very lackluster. People don’t want to pay the premia. It’s sluggish. Those who need to buy come in but they’re (not bidding up),” said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at trading house MKS (Switzerland) SA.

04/05/14

Survey Participants See Higher Gold Prices Next Week

Friday April 4, 2014 12:10 PM
(Kitco News) - A majority of participants in Kitco News’ weekly gold survey look for the price of the metal to rise next week.
Out of 33 participants, 18 responded this week. Eleven see prices up, while five see prices down and two see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.
Last week, a majority of the survey participants said they looked for prices to decline this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT Friday, Comex
gold for June delivery was up $11 for the week to $1,305.30.
“I am slightly bullish for next week,” said Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC. “Gold has held its old resistance level of $1,277 -- now support -- perfectly. The key for me, however, is that the gold forward rates have gone into backwardation. This basically is telling us that the price sensitive physical buyers have once again entered the market. 
“The $1,270 support level is still a pivotal number for us; however, it is important to note that we have seen a tremendous amount of liquidation from the longs this past week so I would anticipate less sell stops upon a breach of that support level.”
Adrian Day, president and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, also looks for higher prices, commenting that the previous correction lower, after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s mid-March comments about interest rates, was overdone.
“A correction was overdue, given the geopolitical premium in the price in early March, but now the correction has run its course,” Day said. “Yellen’s comments were misunderstood, and Yellen herself has backtracked. Gold is due for a rally.”

Ralph Preston, principal with Heritage West Financial, looks for a pullback based on the technicals, however.
“Unless the market closes back over $1,320 in the coming days, the market will have a disposition to test the $1,250-$1,260 support zone,” he said. “Barring a Russian incursion into the Ukraine or deeper into Eastern Europe or some other unforeseen event, gold should technically float lower.”